What Is Prediction
Prediction in reading is the active process of using textual clues combined with prior knowledge to anticipate what comes next in a story, passage, or text. Unlike passive guessing, skilled prediction requires readers to notice specific details: character behavior, plot patterns, sentence structure, and word choices that signal what's coming.
For struggling readers, prediction serves as a bridge between decoding words and building comprehension. A reader working through phonics instruction might predict the next word based on the initial sound and context. A reader further along might predict plot twists by recognizing foreshadowing. The cognitive work is the same: connecting text evidence to expectation.
Why Prediction Matters
Prediction keeps readers engaged and thinking ahead rather than just moving through words mechanically. Research shows that readers who make predictions during reading retain information better and catch comprehension breakdowns faster. When a prediction doesn't match what actually happens in the text, that mismatch signals a problem worth investigating.
For students with dyslexia or other reading differences, prediction provides cognitive scaffolding. Instead of using working memory to decode every single word, a reader can use prediction to narrow down possibilities. On an IEP (Individualized Education Program), prediction is often listed as a specific comprehension strategy to teach and monitor.
Teachers using the Orton-Gillingham method, which emphasizes structured phonics and multisensory learning, build prediction skills progressively. Early lessons focus on predicting simple rhyming words or repeated sentence patterns. Later lessons involve predicting outcomes based on character motivation and plot structure.
How to Teach Prediction
- Start with obvious clues: Use books with predictable patterns or picture clues. Ask "What will happen next?" before turning the page.
- Make predictions explicit: Have your student say their prediction aloud and explain what text evidence they used. This reveals whether they're guessing randomly or noticing real clues.
- Connect to prior knowledge: Link predictions to what the student already knows about similar situations or characters. "Have you seen a cat do that before?"
- Revisit wrong predictions: When a prediction is incorrect, ask what surprised them and why. This builds flexible thinking.
- Pair with questioning: Good predictors ask themselves questions: "Why did the character do that?" and "What might happen because of this action?"
Common Questions
Should I correct my child every time their prediction is wrong?
No. Wrong predictions are data. Ask what clues they noticed and what they expected to happen. If they're predicting without text evidence, that's worth addressing. If they made a reasonable guess based on available information, acknowledge that prediction is a hypothesis, not a guarantee.
My student with dyslexia avoids making predictions. Why?
They may be expending so much cognitive effort on decoding that prediction feels impossible. Simplify the text difficulty or use audiobooks alongside reading. As decoding becomes more automatic, prediction becomes accessible.
Is prediction part of standard reading assessments?
Most state reading standards include prediction as a comprehension skill by second grade. It's typically measured through think-aloud protocols, where students verbalize their predictions and reasoning during reading.
Related Concepts
Prior Knowledge supplies the background information readers use to make informed predictions. Questioning is the thinking process that generates predictions. Comprehension deepens when predictions are confirmed or productively challenged by the text.